HOPE & PRAYERS FOR GEORGE TROTTIER

 I post with a heavy ❤ that George Trottier, my best friend and incentive to the establishment of this New England themed weather (blog) website, has peacefully passed on October 8, 2023. I HOPE and pray he passed peacefully, to his eternal home. Love, Danny 

MAINTAINING THE SITE

 Due to a MAJOR health related set-back personally, and the passing of my best friend, I am going to do my best to keep this established New England themed weather website online. I HOPE  to return  posting at-some-point on this blog, once I can truly focus on producing quality posts in my heart! Please access the links on this site and/or John Hockridge; New England Weather Associates (NEWA), which I feel is quality weather related information,  found on the websites linked. Thank you for understanding. Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

SNOWFALL DATA TRENDS

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Attached is Snowfall Data for North Adams, MA. Official records maintained by John Hockridge, Meteorologist / owner; New England Weather Associates. The data opens with the 1974/75 Winter season (NEWA was established in 1974), and what is clearly seen on the graph overall is that average annual snowfall has indeed been increasing in North Adams since the 1992/93 Winter season (Blizzard of '93). While there have been some winters with below to well below average snowfall in North Adams post 1992/93 season, the overall trend has favored slightly above normal annual snowfall (as seen on the graph). Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

CURRENT NAO & NE 2020

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Currently, what has nature taught us this year? Looking at the light red shaded chart, credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Monthly mean-average; reveals that the mildest weather conditions in New England, temperatures above to well above normal prevailed during January through March 2020, when the NAO was consistently positive or averaged a monthly mean above 1.00 (Standard Deviation), as indicated on-the-chart (black circles). Since April 2020, the NAO has undergone a complete reversal, that has promoted below to well below normal temperatures at-times. Most notably, the consistency of the NAO since the significant pattern reversal in April, will be a very important 'wild' card during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. What is the NAO telling us? The support is overwhelming for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall during the 2020/21 Winter Season due to overall 'negative' trends of the NAO since April... that strongly favor a colder / stormy weather pattern. The NAO is especially supported by the current state of the Sun; exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum! Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (* NOTE: This is also 'consistent' with the NAO historically, as noted from my previous post on October 25, 2020.)

 A great question!: BOSTON had an all time record snowfall of 108.6" during the 2014/15 Winter Season. Average winter season snowfall in BOSTON is around 48.0"; and 2014/15 Winter Season... 60.6" above normal snowfall in BOSTON! Ironically, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) wasn't in a noted 'negative' phase during *2014/15; which is usually a very important climate driver for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall. *2014/15 was an extreme outlier due to strong High pressure ridge over western North America. When you state global warming... this research is out to make viewers aware, IF my overall thoughts are truly realized, that the climate is largely driven by natural & cyclical factors... starting with the Sun. The Sun is currently exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum which strongly favors the NAO to be observed in it's 'negative' phase during the 2020/21 Winter Season. Based on past analogs, 2010/11 & 2000/01, when the Sun was also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, BOSTON had around 30.0" above normal snowfall but the hills of western and parts of northern New England had around 50.0" to 60.0" above normal snowfall. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (Picture of Mt. Greylock War Memorial Tower taken by me in early December 2012, on a pre-winter hike to the summit.)
 

HISTORIC NAO & NE 2020

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This picture was taken by me May 9, 2020 at Whitcomb Hill Summit, Mohawk Trail - Route 2 Florida, MA., during an amplified winter-like weather pattern known as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern prevailed for much of May 2020. The negative NAO is a high latitude block of atmospheric pressure that becomes established around southern Greenland in the North Atlantic; that blocks the jet-stream (upper-air flow) from moving straight west-to-east, sending air of polar origin into the eastern U.S. (northeastern U.S. / New England), along with increased potential of coastal storms... 'Nor'easters'. Historically, the average phase of the NAO during the month of May, is a direct correlation to the average phase of the NAO observed during the upcoming winter season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

UNDERSTANDING OUR SUN

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Look at the 📊 (graph of the Sun) where I marked '22', Solar Cycle 22 was the MOST active in-terms of overall sunspot activity since the 1950's (* likely a longer period-of-time / cycle than dating back to the 1950's). During the peak of Solar Cycle 22, 1988 - 1992, the term Nor'easter all but became extinct in New England. Now, let's look at what actually happened during the winters from 1988 - 1992 in North Adams, during the peak of the MOST active solar cycle (22) since the *1950's.

From 1988 - 1992 (* indicated by red circle on posted snowfall chart)... there were four (4) winters in-a-row with below normal snowfall in North Adams. With the exception of 1989/90; three (3) of these winters experienced well below normal snowfall. This period is the longest duration of back-to-back winters with below to well below normal snowfall since the *1950's. * Average winter season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1". * To be clear the average of those four (4) winters (1988 - 1992) combined is 44.8" snowfall, which is the lowest 4-year average snowfall in North Adams, at-least dating back to 1974.

 CONCLUSION: MUCH unlike the highly active Sun during the peak of Solar Cycle 22 from 1988 - 1992; Solar Cycle 23, and especially the current decaying Solar Cycle 24... has trended MUCH weaker. As-a-result, both the Winters of 2010/11 & 2000/01, that were exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, were truly realized through stronger support for sustained high latitude atmospheric blocking. This allowed for well above normal snowfall in North Adams during 2010/11 & 2000/01. We are now exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum again, and as we exit the overall very weak, decaying Solar Cycle 24... nature is perfectly aligned to repeat it's course experienced 10 & 20-years-ago, with above to well above normal snowfall in New England, during the upcoming Winter Season 2020/21. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.