Sunday, November 22, 2020


(Facebook timeline-post) 

Currently, what has nature taught us this year? Looking at the light red shaded chart, credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Monthly mean-average; reveals that the mildest weather conditions in New England, temperatures above to well above normal prevailed during January through March 2020, when the NAO was consistently positive or averaged a monthly mean above 1.00 (Standard Deviation), as indicated on-the-chart (black circles). Since April 2020, the NAO has undergone a complete reversal, that has promoted below to well below normal temperatures at-times. Most notably, the consistency of the NAO since the significant pattern reversal in April, will be a very important 'wild' card during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. What is the NAO telling us? The support is overwhelming for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall during the 2020/21 Winter Season due to overall 'negative' trends of the NAO since April... that strongly favor a colder / stormy weather pattern. The NAO is especially supported by the current state of the Sun; exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum! Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (* NOTE: This is also 'consistent' with the NAO historically, as noted from my previous post on October 25, 2020.)

 A great question!: BOSTON had an all time record snowfall of 108.6" during the 2014/15 Winter Season. Average winter season snowfall in BOSTON is around 48.0"; and 2014/15 Winter Season... 60.6" above normal snowfall in BOSTON! Ironically, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) wasn't in a noted 'negative' phase during *2014/15; which is usually a very important climate driver for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall. *2014/15 was an extreme outlier due to strong High pressure ridge over western North America. When you state global warming... this research is out to make viewers aware, IF my overall thoughts are truly realized, that the climate is largely driven by natural & cyclical factors... starting with the Sun. The Sun is currently exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum which strongly favors the NAO to be observed in it's 'negative' phase during the 2020/21 Winter Season. Based on past analogs, 2010/11 & 2000/01, when the Sun was also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, BOSTON had around 30.0" above normal snowfall but the hills of western and parts of northern New England had around 50.0" to 60.0" above normal snowfall. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (Picture of Mt. Greylock War Memorial Tower taken by me in early December 2012, on a pre-winter hike to the summit.)


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