THOUGHTS ON THE 2013/14 WINTER SEASON!

NASA Solar Activity as of November 19, 2013

 Solar Activity, while mentioned by few professionals concerning Winter Outlooks... is one-of-the most important factors shaping this upcoming Winter season, it is what I call the foundation. The above image of the solar disk from NASA on November 19, 2013, shows 4-active sunspot regions in-general (circled-in-black) on the sun. The sunspot region toward the center of the solar disk, is most active... however all circled sunspot regions have-to-be-watched. Of note, during a Solar Minimum, the solar disk would be virtually free of sunspot activity... as we head toward 2016, the above image will be less-of-a-factor. Sunspots have a direct relation to High Latitude Blocking episodes, due to the entrapment of heat through UV Rays... promoting increased ozone formation. The more active the sun, the more of a driver it is... influencing the Earth's stratosphere (poleward), where pronounced cooling occurs. Therefore, the orientation of the jet-stream keeps the heart of the Polar Vortex (PV) at the North Pole...
encouraging an overall progressive pattern (with short-lived shots of cold air) in middle latitudes with a highly Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and 
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a result, the weather pattern experienced in middle latitudes, is an overall milder, dryer pattern... which is a signature of increased solar activity, especially during a Solar Maximum.

AO GEFS Index Forecast  -  November 19, 2013

Looking at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) forecast, shows true signs of solar influence. Within the area circled-in-red, the AO Index has been averaging around  +3.0 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean... from extreme late October to mid-November. During this time period there was also a  pronounced resurgence in sunspot activity, which is clearly observed with this classic +AO signature.

SWPC Solar Cycle Progression as of November 4, 2013

Viewers of this site understood that a Solar Maximum was experienced during 2011/12 & 2001/02... following the 9-11 year Schwabe Cycle, which averages to be exactly every 10.66 years that a solar maximum is observed. However, following this cycle also hints at a resurgence of solar activity about 2 years after the actual observed maximum... this occurred in 2003/04 (which highly influenced that Winter season) now were 2 years after the maximum again, with another resurgence in sunspot activity. In posts I published during the 2012/13 Winter Season, I wrote about a return to the classic old-fashioned New England Winter's (as experienced throughout most of the 1960's & 70's) from 2016 through 2020. I stated this with a strong understanding that this period will be the start of a Solar Minimum (which will strongly encourage High Latitude Blocking episodes due to a non-active solar influence), following the Schwabe Cycle. But, there is also another important factor to strongly consider...
on January 4, 2008 we entered Solar Cycle 24. While Solar Cycle 23 was highly active in-terms of sunspot activity, especially before the observed minimum in 2006 (as seen on the SWPC image above), Solar Cycle 24 has paled in-comparison. This is a highly important factor, that will also have a significant influence over the next decade+... considering that the actual solar cycle is about 22 years long.

My thoughts for the 2013/14 Winter Season: Due to a resurgence in solar activity, it's critical in how active the sun remains. However, I will clearly state that seeing the actual Solar Maximum was observed in 2011/12... I certainly believe that it won't be as mild as that Winter. In fact, if you follow the Schwabe Cycle closely... this resurgence in active sunspots should be short-lived. Taking this strongly into consideration, I feel the potential is strong for established High Latitude Blocking episodes from January through March. December is critical, but will more than likely be a period of transition... as the current solar activity will be less of a factor on the overall 500-millibar Height Pattern.

Now that I presented the foundation, I am going to link to NY NJ PA Weather for the finer details on the Winter Forecast for 2013/2014... which is the best seasonal outlook I have ever read.

New England NAO will continue to-be-updated through the Winter season.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY NEW ENGLAND NAO!

 On this one-year-anniversary of New England NAO... 
I thought I would reflect back a-year-ago, to-the-beginning. This site in many ways was something that I had always wanted to see to some level, I can remember Googling phrases related to New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)... but very few sites directly connected the overall NAO influence to New England. The sites that were of interest to me, were quite informative, but what I was really looking for was the interpretation of Indice Forecasts... & their overall effect on the
New England Region. I decided to take that idea into consideration... while posting as a member of Todd Gross' NE-Weather Spotter Network in 2002. I really enjoyed posting on Todd Gross' weather spotter site, and intend to continue to be a member of his established weather enthusiast community. However, it didn't seem proper to post about Indice Forecasts in times of tranquil conditions, especially during the warm season... so I would mainly post in-advance of significant pattern changes during the Winter season. For this reason, I came to realize that I needed a place of my own to truly express my thoughts... which is why I established
New England NAO. Presently, since the establishment of the site, I have only been updating continuously during the Winter... but I may update year-round as the site continues to grow. 

  Even though I am not a professional meteorologist, I have learned a lot about meteorology in general from my close friends who work professionally as meteorologists (John Hockridge, meteorologist & owner of 
New England Weather Associates
& George Trottier, senior forecaster formerly of WNAW 1230 A.M. N. Adams, MA.)... and through my own self-taught research. Because of the increasing popularity of the site... I started a general form of consulting, explaining to the public, the upcoming effects the Indice Forecasts would have on the New England Region. This was aired as a radio-spot known as
New England NAO (November 2011 to July 2012) on WBRK (Inc.) 
1340 A.M. Pittsfield, MA.

(For more information on  

New England NAO official products... please see
NE-NAO - Legend) 



Or click the LEGEND... Above 

  Since the Beginning, New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), now commonly known as simply

New England NAO... has continued to grow through reflection of it's purpose. The site has generated a theme through the help of Dreamstime.com & LogoSnap.com, plus a large part of artistic talent from myself, as author of New England NAO. 

NEW! Logopony (a new Al-powered logo maker website).    

    The Theme of New England NAO:

  1. Page Design

        

A. The title background theme was an exclusive image from Dreamstime.com, it is a view of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole... the image is representative of an area where the heart of high latitude blocking originates in respect to the Negative Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). *(The newly designed Main_Title logo now replaces this background theme... which strongly promotes the site.)     

  

B. The general page background theme was an exclusive template by Airyelf through blogger.com. This general page background theme was changed on November 14, 2012, to the exclusive New_England_NAO_Red_White_&_Blue_Sky template... which strongly blends all the elements on the site.

   2. Page Logos (all custom logos are designed by the author of New England NAO through LogoSnap.com) There are two standard logos and one variation... as well as other featured logos designed by the author. 

    A. This original standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is deep red & the falling arrow is deep blue.      

    B. This second standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is also standard red & the falling arrow is standard blue.

   

    C. This third variant logo features a true standard blue title only, both the rising & falling arrows are also standard blue.



3. Featured Images



A. This exclusive photo from Dreamstime.com is representative of New England's Four Seasons, expressing each seasons touch as experienced in New England.



INC. OCTOBER 15, 1778

TOWN LINE www.newengland-nao.com  Image courtesy of WhiteSummerCreations.com ADAMS, MASSACHUSETTS

  Home of Mt. Greylock Summit   
& Susan B. Anthony  

B. Photo taken by the author of New England NAO
on December 12, 2012, is of the 
Massachusetts Veterans War Memorial Tower 
(Mt. Greylock Summit 3,491 FT.) Adams, MA., which crowns the Commonwealth's Highest Peak. Please visit the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation,
for more information on 
Mt. Greylock State Reservation.

  

INC. APRIL 16, 1878

CITY LINE www.newengland-nao.com  Image courtesy of WhiteSummerCreations.com NORTH ADAMS, MASSACHUSETTS
We Hold The Western Gateway

C. Photo taken by the author of 
New England NAO 
on March 18, 2009, is of 
the
HOOSAC TUNNEL 
(West Portal)
North Adams, MA. 
(pronounced Hoosic), 
where I live very close to.
My 4-year-old nephew (at-the-time of picture) Dominick, of Savoy, MA. is standing at the entrance to the portal. 
 The photo is representative of what could be known unofficially as western Massachusetts' Big Dig... of it's time, due to cost and length of time in-construction--from 1850 - 1874. Also, the lives of 195 miners were lost during the time of construction... making this railroad landmark historically significant to the Commonwealth & New England. From the West Portal in
N. Adams, MA. through to the East Portal in Florida, MA. (at the Deerfield River), is a total length of 4.74 miles. For complete information on the HOOSAC TUNNEL, please visit HoosacTunnel.net. For more information on the New England region (& government entities) please visit
New England Town... defined by Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia.    


  4. The Beginning

On Thursday, January 27, 2011 
New England NAO appeared on a simple blogger.com Awesome Inc. Template under the title:
New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The purpose of New England NAO (NE-NAO)... established January 27, 2011 
is to educate and inform the public of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); by examining current trends and indice forecasts that will impact the New England region.

On Christmas Day, December 25, 2011,
New England NAO became a Memorial Blog to the
New England Region. Dedicated in loving memory of my cousin... Peter Christopher Rowley (1961 - 2011) formerly of Pittsfield, MA., who recognized my true purpose in-life and was taken from us so soon. George Joseph Trottier (1939 - 2023); my best friend and incentive to the establishment of this New England themed weather website.

Prepared by : Daniel Viens

Long Range Weather Forecast for the US

By Ivor Goligher

In other countries, weather conditions can easily be determined. However, in the US, it may be a difficult task. The reason for this is mainly the US is a big country, and it is divided into a lot of different regions. There may be some things that are similar with different areas. For example, areas in the upper part of the country is likely to have a cold and wet climate, while the lower part cooler but still comfortable. Generally, this can be said however, due to the different phenomena happening in our world, it is difficult to determine what the weather is going to be like.

There are already a lot of natural disasters that may affect the long term weather forecast in the US. One would be the recent volcano activity around the world. The very strong and destructive earthquake that hit Japan this year also affects the global weather. Also, the earthquake in Indonesia a few years ago has changed the rotation of the earth slightly. These tragedies may be small but it can bring large amounts of impact to the world and may be factors to change in weather on the long run.

Consider when a volcano eruption occurs. During an eruption, a volcano releases a huge amount of hot, molten lava and spurts ashes into the air. Those ashes are not gone in just one day. While they exist, they can affect clouds and cloud formation, possibly increasing or decreasing the amount of precipitation that the cloud can give off. Even disasters that are not natural may still have an effect on the environment. Nuclear power plants that may have been leaking or blown up may cause disastrous changes to the environment.

The next step is to make sure that your property is in general good condition. If your building is in a bad way any problems could become dangerous during extreme weather. After you've sorted out your quotes for property insurance you should thoroughly check your building for things like:

* Loose tiles * Weak mortar on the property's roof * Broken brickwork on the chimney * Dodgy roof stacks * Corroded nails * Unstable brickwork * Overgrown trees near the building * Weak fences * Rickey satellite dishes and aerials

Ash and dust introduced into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions can lower the earths surface temperatures by reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth. There are many other variables in producing the weather you experience.

While you cannot control the weather you can be prepared for it. Listen to your local forecast when threatening weather is possible especially if you are planning on travelling. Have a emergency kit in your car at all times and use common sense before heading out into inclement weather.

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