Saturday, September 19, 2020

2020/21 WINTER SEASON

(Facebook timeline-post)


To think I am posting about another upcoming winter season, despite being terribly wrong during the 2019/20 Winter Season & especially the 2015/16 Winter Season. But I am NOT God and only do weather outlooks for the New England region as an intense hobby. Besides, each winter season further humbles me, especially during times of inaccuracies, and I continue to learn. We turn the page to the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season! But what have I learned NOT to repeat the same inaccuracies? I have learned that the 'Sun' or 9-11 year sunspot cycle needs to be carefully weighted in-respect to where we currently are in-the-cycle. For example, the sunspot cycle holds most weight concerning long-range outlooks when the Sun is at-the-dead but especially exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The strongest signal following the solar cycle is when the Sun is exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum due to strong presentation of atmospheric high latitude blocking... like the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. The solar cycle averages out to be exactly 10.66 years. This means that the Winter Seasons of 2010/11 & 2000/01; were also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The trend is very clear what happened 10-years & 20-years ago during the noted winters, following this averaged 10-year cycle. Both winters experienced snowfall well above normal in North Adams, 50"-60" above normal snowfall (average season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1"), along with slightly below normal temperatures. We reviewed 2000/01 & 2010/11... dating back to 1974, 2000/01 was the snowiest winter & 2010/11 was the third snowiest winter in North Adams. Now the 10-year anniversary is approaching, and yes, like the noted winter seasons the Sun is indeed exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum during 2020/21! Simply stated: strongly considering the noted factors there is greater than a 50% chance of above to well above normal snowfall and seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures in New England during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.                                                                                      

Thursday, January 9, 2020

2019/20 WINTER SEASON: DELAYED BUT NOT DENIED!


(Facebook timeline-post)
On November 30, 2019; I posted about the upcoming 2019/20 Winter Season; and while the anticipated pull back or mild spell is more prolonged than what I was originally thinking, I did close my post on November 30th stating: *** These highly amplified November patterns historically feature a pull back during much of December, before completely becoming established around Christmas or early January. *** As of January 9, 2020 temperatures across the Northeast / New England have been averaging above to well above normal, especially since the beginning of-the-month. But MUCH unlike the recent mild absent winters of 2001/02, 2011/12, & 2015/16; the Sun is completely reverse, NOT highly active in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk as was 2001/02 & 2011/12, and there is NO strong El Nino influencing Pacific basin-wide Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) as was 2015/16. Both stated factors played a significant role in the complete absence of winter during the above stated years. However, the 2019/20 Winter Season is definitely delayed but NOT denied. The reason for the extended mild spell since mid-to-late December; is due to a strongly consolidated Polar Vortex (PV) over high northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The strong Polar Vortex (PV) keeps bonafide arctic air up over northern Canada / Alaska; where the core of winter has been truly experienced. As-a-result, mid-latitudes experience an enhanced west-to-east flow of the jet-stream with a mild Pacific influenced air mass and transient or short-lived shots of cold. Many winter seasons experienced this pattern building-up to a complete longwave weather pattern change that resulted in a highly memorable second half-of-winter. The winters that are very similar to this year in-respect to the Sun & overall longwave global weather pattern (MUCH unlike the complete absent winters stated above) are 2002/03, 2006/07, 2009/10, & 2014/15 - ALL noted winters experienced above to well above normal temperatures during mid-to-late December through early January before a complete longwave pattern CHANGE; that brought winter in with-a-punch in late January, but especially February & March!
Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.


Also viewable on the New England NAO Facebook Page

Saturday, November 30, 2019

WINTER SEASON 2019/20: DEAD OF SOLAR MINIMUM

The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI



Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number? Updated 30 Nov 2019 
Spotless Days Current Stretch: 17 days
2019 total: 253 days (76%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1 br="">2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1 br="">2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 30 Nov 2019
Originally prepared: November 4, 2019 (Facebook timeline-post)
It's very important to NOTE that the Sun will be at-the-dead of a solar minimum for the 2019/20 Winter Season and exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum during the 2020/21 Winter Season! Much unlike my terrible inaccuracy during the 2015/16 Winter Season; the strongest signal for a moderate to strong potential of an old fashion winter in New England, following the 9-11 year sunspot 'Schwabe' cycle, is this upcoming winter season and 2020/21. The blank Sun or complete absence of sunspots is directly related to a highly amplified jet-stream / longwave weather pattern over Mid-Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere due to strong atmospheric High Latitude Blocking. However, it's also very important to note what side of the highly amplified jet-stream you'll be on, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) are critical to determining this factor. The Great Lakes Region &  Northeast / New England are strongly favored to experience the extreme wintery side of this highly amplified longwave weather pattern due to above to well above normal SST's in the Gulf of Alaska & below to well below normal SST's off the west coast of South America. *** These highly amplified November patterns historically feature a pull back during much of December, before completely becoming established around Christmas or early January. The 2015/16 Winter Season was a terrible inaccuracy for me personally, since the establishment of my website. What happened is that the winter season (2015/16) was entering a solar minimum BUT NOT yet truly there until 2016; concerning spotless days on the solar disk, making for a much weaker signal following the sunspot cycle, especially considering there were 0 spotless days (on the solar disk) in 2015. As-a-result; the strong El Nino that developed was the driving force that particular season. ***

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

WINTER SEASON 2015/16: ENTERING SOLAR MINIMUM

The emerging sleep of-the-Sun, with only three (3) identified sunspots visible on the solar disk as of 
November 25, 2015.  
Originally prepared: November 23, 2015 (Facebook timeline-post) 
I would like to talk about El Niño, that has made significant headlines in the media. El Niño "The Boy", which is an unusual warming of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, is NOT basin wide through the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact close observation shows there is NO comparison to the 1997/98 super El Niño, as this particular event is *Central-to-West-based and NOT basin wide or East-based. This means the warming of SST anomalies over the Pacific is concentrated from the International Dateline, points east to the *Central / North American continent.
A *Central-to-West-based El Niño will in-fact encourage an energized sub-tropical jet-stream but ridging (above normal heights) over western North America due to the area of above normal SST's concentrated through the eastern Pacific, that will tend to encourage troughing (below normal heights) over eastern North America.
What is the foundation of the 2015/16 Winter season?
1. Solar Minimum / High Latitude Blocking - it's very important to consider that we are now entering a solar minimum following the 9-11 year sunspot cycle. The Sun has been averaging 20 daily events or less (in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk) since November 7, 2014, and is currently at 15 daily events as of November 20, 2015. Through the majority of absent New England Winter's of the 1990's, the Sun was averaging 40-100 daily events, * sending a moderate to high frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays at-the-Earth. The higher frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays acts to deplete ozone and in-return allows for pronounced cooling of the pole's stratosphere, with the Polar Vortex (PV) almost never splitting to influence middle latitudes of-the-Earth. Strongly taking into consideration current solar activity, lends hand to the highly cyclical 9-11 year (Schwabe) sunspot cycle, that we are indeed entering a solar minimum. The emerging sleep of-the-Sun will soon encourage pronounced warming of the pole's stratosphere due to increased ozone, * as this warming pushes down through the * stratosphere and troposphere, the PV will in-turn react and SPLIT, the pole will moderate. As the split PV drops south in-latitude, a reaction-to-action, ejecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) into a pronounced negative phase. This will be the said driver of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere during the coming 2015/16 Winter season, NOT El Niño.
2. El Niño - the above said factors will tend to encourage an unusually stronger than normal or *enhanced* sub-tropical jet-stream, that will as-a-result of location, be a high moisture source to interact with the Polar jet-stream. This will be, an enhancer, encouraging a moderate to strong probability of Nor'easters.
When will this change influence New England?
While we have experienced a gradual step-down since mid November, there are key signals that will indicate CHANGE
A strong low pressure system tracking through the eastern Great Lakes region, producing rainfall in New England, around the week of November 29th may be the mechanism that encourages a significant pattern change. 
Therefore, December 5-12th is the time period of high volatility.
* Corrected information on sudden stratospheric warming & the current state of El Niño.