Sunday, October 25, 2020

HISTORICAL NAO & 2020

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This picture was taken by me May 9, 2020 at Whitcomb Hill Summit, Mohawk Trail - Route 2 Florida, MA., during an amplified winter-like weather pattern known as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern prevailed for much of May 2020. The negative NAO is a high latitude block of atmospheric pressure that becomes established around southern Greenland in the North Atlantic; that blocks the jet-stream (upper-air flow) from moving straight west-to-east, sending air of polar origin into the eastern U.S. (northeastern U.S. / New England), along with increased potential of coastal storms... 'Nor'easters'. Historically, the average phase of the NAO during the month of May, is a direct correlation to the average phase of the NAO observed during the upcoming winter season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

Friday, October 9, 2020

UNDERSTANDING OUR SUN



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Look at the ๐Ÿ“Š (graph of the Sun) where I marked '22', Solar Cycle 22 was the MOST active in-terms of overall sunspot activity since the 1950's (* likely a longer period-of-time / cycle than dating back to the 1950's). During the peak of Solar Cycle 22, 1988 - 1992, the term Nor'easter all but became extinct in New England. Now let's look at what actually happened during the winters from 1988 - 1992 in North Adams, during the peak of the MOST active solar cycle (22) since the *1950's.

From 1988 - 1992 (* indicated by red circle on posted snowfall chart)... there were four (4) winters in-a-row with below normal snowfall in North Adams. With the exception of 1989/90; three (3) of these winters experienced well below normal snowfall. This period is the longest duration of back-to-back winters with below to well below normal snowfall since the *1950's. * Average winter season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1". * To be clear the average of those four (4) winters (1988 - 1992) combined is 44.8" snowfall, which is the lowest 4-year average snowfall in North Adams, at-least dating back to 1974.

 CONCLUSION: MUCH unlike the highly active Sun during the peak of Solar Cycle 22 from 1988 - 1992; Solar Cycle 23, and especially the current decaying Solar Cycle 24... has trended MUCH weaker. As-a-result, both the Winters of 2010/11 & 2000/01, that were exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, were truly realized through stronger support for sustained high latitude atmospheric blocking. This allowed for well above normal snowfall in North Adams during 2010/11 & 2000/01. We are now exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum again, and as we exit the overall very weak, decaying Solar Cycle 24... nature is perfectly aligned to repeat it's course experienced 10 & 20-years-ago, with above to well above normal snowfall in New England, during the upcoming Winter Season 2020/21. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

 

Saturday, September 19, 2020

2020/21 WINTER SEASON

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To think I am posting about another upcoming winter season, despite being terribly wrong during the 2019/20 Winter Season & especially the 2015/16 Winter Season. But I am NOT God and only do weather outlooks for the New England region as an intense hobby. Besides, each winter season further humbles me, especially during times of inaccuracies, and I continue to learn. We turn the page to the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season! But what have I learned NOT to repeat the same inaccuracies? I have learned that the 'Sun' or 9-11 year sunspot cycle needs to be carefully weighted in-respect to where we currently are in-the-cycle. For example, the sunspot cycle holds most weight concerning long-range outlooks when the Sun is at-the-dead but especially exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The strongest signal following the solar cycle is when the Sun is exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum due to strong presentation of atmospheric high latitude blocking... like the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. The solar cycle averages out to be exactly 10.66 years. This means that the Winter Seasons of 2010/11 & 2000/01; were also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The trend is very clear what happened 10-years & 20-years ago during the noted winters, following this averaged 10-year cycle. Both winters experienced snowfall well above normal in North Adams, 50"-60" above normal snowfall (average season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1"), along with slightly below normal temperatures. We reviewed 2000/01 & 2010/11... dating back to 1974, 2000/01 was the snowiest winter & 2010/11 was the third snowiest winter in North Adams. Now the 10-year anniversary is approaching, and yes, like the noted winter seasons the Sun is indeed exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum during 2020/21! Simply stated: strongly considering the noted factors there is greater than a 50% chance of above to well above normal snowfall and seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures in New England during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.                                                                                      

Thursday, January 9, 2020

2019/20 WINTER SEASON: DELAYED BUT NOT DENIED!


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On November 30, 2019; I posted about the upcoming 2019/20 Winter Season; and while the anticipated pull back or mild spell is more prolonged than what I was originally thinking, I did close my post on November 30th stating: *** These highly amplified November patterns historically feature a pull back during much of December, before completely becoming established around Christmas or early January. *** As of January 9, 2020 temperatures across the Northeast / New England have been averaging above to well above normal, especially since the beginning of-the-month. But MUCH unlike the recent mild absent winters of 2001/02, 2011/12, & 2015/16; the Sun is completely reverse, NOT highly active in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk as was 2001/02 & 2011/12, and there is NO strong El Nino influencing Pacific basin-wide Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) as was 2015/16. Both stated factors played a significant role in the complete absence of winter during the above stated years. However, the 2019/20 Winter Season is definitely delayed but NOT denied. The reason for the extended mild spell since mid-to-late December; is due to a strongly consolidated Polar Vortex (PV) over high northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The strong Polar Vortex (PV) keeps bonafide arctic air up over northern Canada / Alaska; where the core of winter has been truly experienced. As-a-result, mid-latitudes experience an enhanced west-to-east flow of the jet-stream with a mild Pacific influenced air mass and transient or short-lived shots of cold. Many winter seasons experienced this pattern building-up to a complete longwave weather pattern change that resulted in a highly memorable second half-of-winter. The winters that are very similar to this year in-respect to the Sun & overall longwave global weather pattern (MUCH unlike the complete absent winters stated above) are 2002/03, 2006/07, 2009/10, & 2014/15 - ALL noted winters experienced above to well above normal temperatures during mid-to-late December through early January before a complete longwave pattern CHANGE; that brought winter in with-a-punch in late January, but especially February & March!
Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.


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