CONCERNING NEW ENGLAND NAO

I wish to thank those that had a generated interest in this site during the absent 2011/12 Winter season. I have learned alot since this past season... and continue to grow as the site grows. Unfortunately, I have not been able to update as usual... due to a virus that has disabled the PC, I normally use. If there is still interest in the site as we enter the "warm season"... I may continue to update, once the problem is resolved. Also, I would truly like to express my appreciation to John Hockridge of New England Weather Associates & George Trottier... their combined talent & support was a learning experience for me. NEW ENGLAND NAO "Talks Weather" - final program aired - Thursday, April 12, 2012 at 5:30 P. M. on WBRK 1340 A.M. Pittsfield, MA. (Special Thanks to WBRK & Rich Whitman, who helped make the program a reality.) Sincerely, Danny

MARCH 11-18, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO

 
  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 


  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 


  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.  
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative.  The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

  
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently strongly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately Positive.. trending weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The EPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30.
  The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The WPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30.


  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

 Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.   


EXTENDED OUTLOOK: As the tropical intraseasonal oscillation,
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave progresses through phase 5... a strong Pacific & subtropical jet-stream - in association with a strong +EPO pattern - will be the dominant feature. In-reaction, an intense subtropical ridge in association with an
unseasonably strong warm front will push northeast over eastern North America... as the
+AO & +NAO influence peak. This pattern will encourage a classic Bermuda High (blow-torch) to become established off the Eastern Seaboard... as a strong south to southwest flow - at all levels of the atmosphere - fosters well Above normal temperatures in New England March 18-21. Keep in-mind that the average high temperatures throughout New England for March 18-21 would be around
40°F - 49°F... meaning this period will potentially average around
+30°F Above normal!

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The current MJO wave will continue to progress through phase 6... and enter phase 7, March 22-24. This will promote a brief re-establishment of the Negative EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... which will encourage the
AO & NAO to briefly fall Negative around March 25-30. There is a heightened potential of  below normal temperatures in association with Miller Type B coastal
redevelopment during this period... dependent on the timing & interaction of elements, before a gradual moderation March 31 to April 2.
  Of note, research has shown that the initial effects of a solar maximum are first observed at the equator... then expand north & south in-latitude. This is important to consider due to a highly active MJO influence (over the equatorial Pacific) for much of the Northern Hemisphere's cold season, which could be connected to the current observed solar maximum... in association to the
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. The overall state of the
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also effected by this factor, as Pacific sea surface temperatures rise... with the establishment of weak El Nino conditions (as we enter the Northern Hemisphere's warm season).

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of... 

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

  Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights... are for the indice at +1.5 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean, to be weakening slightly in the short-term. A cold front over the Ohio River Valley will push east allowing for falling Heights, as temperatures fall to slightly below seasonal levels March 10-11. The overall progressive pattern will allow for quick moderation as the trough lifts-out of New England... with temperatures returning to above normal levels March 12-13. Due to a highly active Phase 4 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over the Pacific Maritime Continent... the dominant feature will be an intense jet-stream of Pacific origin, allowing for a continuation of above to well above normal temperatures in New England March 14-20. The chart above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts this intense tropical wave to propagate from Phase 4-5 around the middle of the month... & enter Phase 6-7 around March 22-24. This may encourage a brief significant pattern change (adjusting my initial timing from March 14-16) as high pressure builds in the east-central Pacific... in association with a return of the Negative Phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Ridge that may encourage a brief +PNA, -AO & -NAO influence as the existing Polar Vortex shifts east-southeast March 25-31. 

Prepared by: Daniel Viens     

FEBRUARY 19-26, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO


  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 


  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Positive... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Positive March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be increasingly Positive... then trend neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 


  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to weakly Negative March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.  
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral.  The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 28-29. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to weakly Negative March 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

  
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive.. trending increasingly Positive March 1-7. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 8-12.
  The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly to Moderately Positive March 1-7. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 8-12.


  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative February 28-29. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive March 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative... trending neutral March 8-14. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

 Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.   


EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Weak blocking over southeastern Canada in association with a brief short-lived -AO & -NAO influence, will allow for coastal redevelopment of low pressure on Wednesday, February 29. My initial timing of this potential deviation within the overall longwave pattern, was slightly off. However, this system has the potential to be interior New England's first moderate snowfall to this-point (especially over western & parts of northern New England)... of the meteorological 2011-12 Winter season. Due to progression of the Phase 2-5 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the equatorial Pacific, the pattern will again become progressive... with a return to an intense Zonal flow of Pacific origin, across North America. Temperatures will be seasonal to slightly above normal March 1-4, allowing for milder systems to effect the region... as the upper-steering of the 500-millibar Height Pattern shifts the existing Polar Vortex over northwestern Canada. This pattern will promote a re-establishment of the +AO & +NAO influence, as temperatures rise to well above normal levels in New England... March 5-12. 

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: As the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, MJO wave progresses through phases 3-5... a strong Pacific jet-stream (in association with a +EPO pattern) will be the dominant feature. Of note, research has shown that the initial effects of a solar maximum are first observed at the equator... then expand north & south in-latitude. This is important to consider due to a highly active MJO influence (over the equatorial Pacific) for much of the Northern Hemisphere's cold season, which could be connected to the current observed solar maximum... in association to the
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. The overall state of the
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also effected by this factor, as Pacific sea surface temperatures rise... with the establishment of weak El Nino conditions (as we enter the Northern Hemisphere's warm season).
 As for the extended & immediate long range, the current MJO wave will continue to progress through phase 5... and enter phase 6 during the second week of March. This will promote a re-establishment of the Negative EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... which could encourage the AO & NAO to briefly fall Negative around March 14-16.    

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of...