CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights are for the indice around -0.5 SD below
normal-mean, will become weakly Negative in the short-term.

"MARCH 2013" IN-RECAP.

March 2012 averaged 7-9° above normal throughout New England, considering March 2013 is still averaging 2-4° above normal currently... the combined factors in-place support below normal temperatures overall, from late March into the beginning of April. Viewers of this site understand why it was so warm last year at-this-time, strongly taking into consideration that 2011/12 was a Solar Maximum, following the

9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. We also understood that this March would be at least much closer to normal... following post solar maximum cycles.
  

 Meanwhile, looking-back-at-the
NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW, posted on
February 24, 2013, I stated:"This cycle combined with the predicted MJO highlight a threat for coastal storm development March 11-15...along with a continuation of below normal temperatures. The second half of March may moderate to above to well above normal temperatures briefly, but don't be caught off guard with Spring-fever-yet... for the end of March into the beginning of April will mark a return of wintery elements!"

While March 9-13 was certainly a blow-torch, which was seriously overlooked on my part due to no true sign of a significant pattern change... at the time the post was published. This is what I consider a "hiccup", in an overall threatening pattern. 
It is, of course, no surprise that we returned to below to well below normal temperatures March 14-15... considering the overall longwave pattern did not undergo a major change.
 As a result, the threatening mid-March pattern will be realized again with a coastal system that will effect New England March 18-19.. with a potential for accumulating snow over western & parts of northern New England, while southeastern New England will likely see 
mixed-precipitation to rain. Temperatures will average colder than normal through March 20-21, due to the persistent -AO / -NAO influence.  I did state that the second half of March may moderate to above to well above normal temperatures briefly... however this appears to be just another "hiccup" in the pattern again, with a moderation 
in-advance of a significant cold frontal passage March 22-24.

Mid-to-Late March is when temperature averages significantly rise in the Northern Hemisphere, due to the natural "seasonal" change in the Earth's tilted axis 
in-relation to it's orbit around the sun. This change, makes it more challanging for snowfall in New England... especially during the beginning of April, however other factors can still overwhelm the odds. The factors in-place that have strong potential of overwhelming the odds as we head toward late March: 

1. Post Solar Maximum Winter -  shows signs cyclically-speaking, of Blocking patterns being a predominant feature (-AO / -NAO) from late March through the beginning of April.

2. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) - Currently in Phase 6-7, forecasted by the GEFS to propagate through Phase 8-1... which encourages an overall 
-EPO, -AO, -NAO Pattern.

3. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) - Not a typo, this indice which has recently been in an overall Positive Phase... is forecasted to become very weakly Negative toward the end of March, the AAO acts in a similar manner as the AO in the Northern Hemisphere, especially during times of significant Height amplification.

To say that the period of March 25 to April 10 will be persistently below normal 
in-temperature would be improbable, considering the time of year... however the factors combined strongly support below normal temperatures overall through the period. This period also highlights a continued risk of coastal storm development, considering the above said factors that will strongly influence the 
500-millibar Height Pattern.

FEBRUARY 24, 2013 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO


The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative February 26-28. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Negative March 1-4. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will trend weakly to moderately Negative March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative February 26-28. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Negative March 1-4. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will trend weakly to moderately Negative March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Arctic Oscillation (AO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative February 26-28. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Negative March 1-4. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will trend increasingly Negative March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative February 26-28. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Negative March 1-4. The GFS later indicates that the AO will trend increasingly Negative March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive February 26-28. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive March 1-4. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will trend weakly to moderately Positive March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Positive February 26-28. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive March 1-4. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will trend weakly to moderately Positive March 5-12. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.


The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently moderately Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately Positive February 26-28. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive March 1-2. The GEFS later indicates that the EPO will trend neutral to weakly Negative March 3-10.

The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently moderately Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be moderately Positive February 26-28. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive March 1-2. The GEFS later indicates that the WPO will trend neutral to very weakly Negative March 3-10.


The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Negative February 26-28. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will remain very weakly Negative March 1-4. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will trend weakly Negative March 5-12.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range Guidance only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

*Pattern of Complexity

Area of Convection that initially starts as a Tropical-wave in the Indian Ocean... propagates east to the equatorial Pacific, while strongly influencing sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, is known as the

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). 
The MJO is forecasted by it's propagation in Phases 1-8.
For New England, Phase 4, forward propagating to Phase 5-6... would equate to a classic blow-torch with a highly 
+EPO, +AO, +NAO Pattern due to a much stronger than normal Pacific and sub-tropical jet-stream. Phase 7 indicates change for eastern North America as the convection continues to propagate to the west, while Phase 8-3 shifts this tropical influence from the western Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean... shifting the overall ridge/trough axis, encouraging Blocking over the eastern Pacific with an increasingly
-EPO, -AO, -NAO Pattern.
The GFS/GEFS MJO Forecast, currently in Phase 5-6, supports a highly active Pacific-jet stream as convection propagates through the Pacific Maritime Continent. While this pattern is certainly not supportive of a true Blocking signature... it is encouraging stormy conditions in the west-central United States.
The system that will effect New England on February 27th, is complicated... due to this overall prevailing *Pattern of Complexity in association with a 
Positive EPO influence. This factor, combined with the current MJO state... are encouraging an overall milder system despite the NAO being very weakly Negative. As a result, secondary Low pressure will form and provide for accumulating snow over western and parts of northern New England... however  initial warming aloft from the primary Low combined with marginal temperatures, will encourage mixed-precipitation to rain over eastern 
New England.

MJO January-March composites to the left

While conditions will be fairly benign, with colder temperatures throughout New England March 1-2... 
The MJO will continue it's forward propagation in Phase 6-7 during 
March 3-10... this is where the pattern becomes highly volatile yet again, with below to well below normal temperatures overall and high potential of coastal cyclogenesis.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS:

While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signal is weak
in-relation to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)... other factors show strong signals. 
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a very important factor this year, however this 
Winter Season of 2012/13 is post solar maximum... following the 
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle, would support an overall pattern of Atmospheric High Latitude Blocking, like what was observed during the post solar maximum 
Winter Seasons of 2002/03 & 1992/93.

Post Solar Maximum Winter Season 2012/13

Solar Cycle progression is a significant part of understanding long range trends, 
where consistent cycles can be observed. The chart above from 
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in
Boulder, Colorado clearly shows the Solar Maximum during the absent 
Winter Season of 2011/12, especially 2001/02. During the Solar Maximum experienced in 2011/12 the NAO averaged around +2.0 SD above normal-mean from December 2011 through February 2012. However, as the sunspot cycle peaked then weakened it's influence, the magnetically active sun produced less sunspots...allowing for less ozone formation that
in-return traps heat through UV Rays. This significantly less active solar influence during late April-May 2012, had direct effects on the NAO... where Poleward Heating of the Stratosphere then flipped the indice into a pronounced Negative Phase. Of further note, while solar activity has continued to decline,  the predicted values were noticeably-off with this trend. Solar activity, while minimally active... will continue to decline through 2016/17, as the predicted values on the chart suggest.

Even though we experienced a solar maximum in 2011/12, the sun is entering deeper into a probable mild minimum... a 28-30 year cycle that last occured on average between 1948 - 1978. This is strongly reflected by the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)... that had entered into an overall Cool Regime in 2008, which is highly sensitive to solar cycle progression. This would promote overall La Nina conditions over an El Nino Pacific influence, but also encourage a gradual return to the 
old-fashioned New England Winter's experienced during the 1960's & 70's. Following this cycle proves highly threatening for intense New England Winter's from 2016 through the 2020's. (*The only exception to that may be 2021/22, when a probable solar maximum will occur.) On the chart above, I attempt to show where we are now cyclically-speaking, so in-other-words like 1953/54... 2013/14 is around 5-6 years into the change to a Cool PDO Regime. 

While March has been known to be a highly volatile month, understanding cyclical cycles helps better determine just how intense the elements could be. 
The Blizzard of 1993 (March 14,1993) occured during the post solar maximum 
Winter Season of 1992/93, while the post solar maximum seasons of 2002/03 & 1982/83 produced significant coastal storms during February & March. This cycle combined with the predicted MJO highlight a threat for coastal storm development March 11-15...along with a continuation of below normal temperatures. The second half of March may moderate to above to well above normal temperatures briefly, but don't be caught off guard with Spring-fever-yet... for the end of March into the beginning of April will mark a return of wintery elements!

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of...

  NEW ENGLAND NAO APP. - application available as a convenience to
Android Smartphone users on the Google Play Market.

WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION?

JANUARY 20-27, 2013 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO



The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 29-31. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will trend weakly Negative February 8-15.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 29-31. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral February 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will trend very weakly Negative February 8-15.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 29-31. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will trend increasingly Negative February 8-15.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 29-31. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to very weakly Negative February 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the AO will trend weakly Negative February 8-15.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 29-31. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will trend weakly Positive February 8-15. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 29-31. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive February 1-7. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will trend increasingly Positive February 8-15. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be very weakly Positive January 29-31. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be weakly Positive to neutral February 1-5. The GEFS later indicates that the EPO will trend increasingly Negative February 6-11.

The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Positive January 29-31. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive February 1-5. The GEFS later indicates that the WPO will trend very weakly Negative February 6-11. 

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) - 
GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly Positive January 29-31. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be very weakly Positive February 1-7. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will trend very weakly Negative February 8-15. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range Guidance only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

* Signature of Blocking

Area of Convection that initially starts as a Tropical-wave in the Indian Ocean... propagates east to the equatorial Pacific, while strongly influencing sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, is known as the
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). 
The MJO is forecasted by it's propagation in Phases 1-8.
For New England, Phase 4, forward propagating to Phase 5-6... would equate to a classic blow-torch with a highly 
+EPO, +AO, +NAO Pattern due to a much stronger than normal Pacific and sub-tropical jet-stream. Phase 7 indicates change for eastern North America as the convection continues to propagate to the west, while Phase 8-3 shifts this tropical influence from the western Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean... shifting the overall ridge/trough axis, encouraging Blocking over the eastern Pacific with an increasingly
-EPO, -AO, -NAO Pattern.
The GFS/GEFS MJO Forecast depicts this area of convection over the western Pacific to briefly retrograde, back toward Phase 6, which is clearly reflected by a short-return of a Positive EPO influence over the eastern Pacific. Due to changes with the overall 
500-millibar Height Pattern... the Polar Vortex will lift over north-central Canada as a potent Low moves to the northwest of New England, in association with a weakly Positive AO / NAO, encouraging above normal temperatures with periods of rain January 29-31. 

MJO January-March composites to the left

The MJO will rapidly propagate to Phase 7-8... February 1-7, which has not yet occured so far this Winter. This is a very important factor that represents a strong * Signature of Blocking, that will greatly influence teleconnections during February. Of interest, the Winter Season of 2006/07 featured a highly active MJO. An intense Pacific jet-stream was the driving influence over North America... as the MJO propagated from Phase 4-6 during late November 2006 through the beginning of January 2007, this promoted above to well above normal temperatures in New England with a winter that appeared to be a no show. However, the MJO continued to propagate through Phase 7-8 during mid-January 2007... this significant change led to progressively colder conditions. With coastal storms occuring during February & March 2007, the winter went-out being quite memorable.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS:

While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signal is weak
in-relation to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)... other factors show strong signals. 
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important factor, however this 
Winter Season of 2012/13 is post solar maximum... following the 
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle, would support an overall pattern of Atmospheric High Latitude Blocking, like what was observed during the post solar maximum 
Winter Seasons of 2002/03 & 1992/93.

Post Solar Maximum Winter Season 2012/13

Solar Cycle progression is a significant part of understanding long range trends, 
where consistent cycles can be observed. The chart above from 
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in
Boulder, Colorado clearly shows the Solar Maximum during the absent 
Winter Season of 2011/12, especially 2001/02. During the Solar Maximum experienced in 2011/12 the NAO averaged around +2.0 SD above normal-mean from December 2011 through February 2012. However, as the sunspot cycle peaked then weakened it's influence, the magnetically active sun produced less sunspots...allowing for less ozone formation that
in-return traps heat through UV Rays. This significantly less active solar influence during late April-May 2012, had direct effects on the NAO... where Poleward Heating of the Stratosphere then flipped the indice into a pronounced Negative Phase. Of further note, while solar activity has continued to decline, the predicted values were noticeably-off with this trend. This may seem innocent - not of importance, however, it has a large impact that could otherwise dismiss cyclical trends with the Global Weather Pattern.
Following MJO cycles as well as looking back at the post solar maximum Winter Seasons of 2002/03 & 1992/93 strongly point to a highly active period during February. 
The influence of the MJO Entering Phase 8-1... encouraging strong Blocking over the east-central Pacific, strongly supports an overall -EPO, -AO, -NAO Pattern taking hold with a return to below normal temperatures in New England February 1-7. 
February 8-15, will feature below to well below normal temperatures... with stronger risk of coastal development. * Although the NAO has generally been a non-player up until this-point in-time, the forward propagating Phase 8 MJO along with 
post solar maximum cycles... supports sustained Blocking in February into the beginning of March!

Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of...

  NEW ENGLAND NAO APP. - application available as a convenience to
Android Smartphone users on the Google Play Market.

WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION?

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

1800 UTC GFS 1000-500 hPa Thickness show an expanding Arctic/Polar Vortex over eastern Canada on Tuesday, 
January 22, 2013 that will make a punch-in-New England... as bonafide Arctic air pushes southeast with rapidly falling Heights over eastern North America.
     

Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights
are for the indice around normal-mean or neutral... will  fall very weakly Negative January 14-16.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has continued it's forward propagation in Phase 6-7, as the area of convection (thunderstorms) shifts over the western Pacific. Meanwhile, Heights are significantly rising over the eastern Pacific, as the
Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is increasingly Negative.
All of these changes point to an active time ahead for New England, with the initial change happening with a cold frontal passage on Tuesday, January 15, that will mark the end of the January thaw. Reminding us that Winter's fury is far from over, despite hearing reports from NASA that the year 2012 was the "hottest on record?"
Winter's true punch-in-New England won't really be noticed, however, until January 20-24... as the EPO Ridge strengthens, resulting in a classic +PNA / -NAO influence. This will be a critical period, that will make way for a bonafide Arctic air invasion over the northeastern United States... with a high risk of Miller Type A coastal development, late January into early February.