9-11 YEAR SUNSPOT CYCLE PROVES THREATENING FOR NEW ENGLAND NE!

Originally prepared: February 10, 2015 (Facebook timeline-post) 
The 2014/15 season is-the-true beginning of-a-cycle... supporting the RETURN OF classic OLD-FASHIONED-WINTER's in NEW ENGLAND! On January 14, 2015, I had posted that all-the-elements would (have the-potential-to) come together... with the return of the old fashioned New England winter, as experienced through most-of-the 1950's, 1960's, & 70's. As we realized the "cold", but had yet to observe a true snowstorm (Nor'easter). Since-that-post, Boston has recorded it's snowiest 7-day period in-history (during late January 2015), and Hartford, CT. is presently averaging around 8-10°F below normal for the month-of-February. While there are various forms of long range weather guidance, such as NOAA's CFS forecast model... nature itself has already provided us with strong clues. These clues rest with understanding of-the-Sun's 9-11 year sunspot cycle, known as the Schwabe Cycle, which averages to be exactly 10.66 years. Sunspots are temporary dark spots located on the photosphere of-the-Sun, that significantly reduces the temperature within the darkened spot, in-contrast to the outer surrounding of the solar disk. However, the influences go-far-beyond the solar disk through the release of ultraviolet (UV) rays. UV rays (due to highly active "charged" sunspots) fall back on-the-Earth, which has a direct poleward effect. The higher frequency of UV rays acts to "cool" the pole's stratosphere, as the Polar Vortex (PV) remains over-the-Arctic... thus NOT SPLITTING, dropping south, to influence middle latitudes of-the-Earth. During the period of a Solar Maximum, is when this activity peaks... the Winter of 2011/12 was a Solar Maximum. However, we are now heading toward a Solar Minimum (the five-year-period between a solar maximum), which allows for a reverse effect... due to virtually no sunspot activity on the solar disk. In return, the pole's stratosphere "warms", encouraging "Blocking High Pressure" in northern latitudes as the Polar Vortex (PV) SPLITS, becoming significantly displaced from the pole as it drops south in-latitude (*has occurred during this 2014/15 Winter season). Of extreme interest, the sun will truly enter a Solar Minimum around the 2015/16 Winter season, and have strong probability to-be-deep within a solar minimum during the 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, & 2020/21 Winter seasons... following this highly cyclical cycle!

FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE 2014/15 WINTER SEASON!

Originally prepared: January 14-15, 2015 (Facebook timeline-post) 
A further in-depth look at the 2014/15 Winter Season! Well, changes are... and certainly have occurred. The image below (although-not-current) depicts - MAJOR - changes that have occurred with the 500-millibar Height Pattern over North America (and the Northern Hemisphere as-a-whole). What has happened? The most noteworthy change from December is-with-the Polar Vortex (PV), itself. The polar vortex is an intense (cold) upper-level low pressure system that originates over the Arctic / North Pole, and this-is-where the PV stayed for most of December. However, through poleward stratospheric changes "warming"... the PV SPLIT into two (2) separate lobes and dropped south, with one lobe falling over North America, and the other over Eurasia. Through these changes, the pole moderates... as "Blocking High Pressure" becomes established across northern latitudes (i.e. Arctic Oscillation "AO" becomes increasingly negative), ejecting the upper-level low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska & replacing-it with intensifying High Pressure (notice the greenish shade toward the Gulf of Alaska on-the-image, indicating moderating anomalies, which is a significant change from December). It's very IMPORTANT to understand that during most of-the-classic old fashioned winter's experienced in New England during the 1950's, 60's, & 70's the PV almost always split... if this doesn't take place, you end-up with a longwave weather pattern similar to-that-of December 2014, "progressive", which was experienced through most-of-the absent winter's of-the-1990's! Now that the PV has split, what will happen? The 500-millibar Height Pattern is-open to configure itself to repeat the 1950's, 60's, & 70's all-over-again... and will attempt to do just that on-or-about January 21st, before this time frame there will be a temporary moderation... indicating CHANGE. What does this mean? We have now certainly experienced the "cold" but have yet to combine that with true snowstorms (Nor'easters)... on-or-about this date (1/21) is when all-the-elements have the potential to-come-together (i.e. North Atlantic Oscillation "NAO" also becomes negative), thus "blocking" / lifting the jet-stream up along the U.S. Eastern seaboard, promoting East coast cyclogenesis. This change will make run at balancing the December blowtorch, as January 2015 should average "at least" 1-2° below normal in-temperature, however beyond this... with the exception of a brief mild spell around the second week-of-February, both February & March 2015 have a strong probability of averaging below normal in-temperature, considering the above-said-factors. In closing, the Winter Season of 2014/15 has strong potential of averaging slightly below normal in-temperature overall, with above normal snowfall through much-of-New England. What is average snowfall? For example: ADAMS / NORTH ADAMS - 78.1" average annual snowfall. Winter 2014/15: potential 100.0"+ for-the-season as-a-whole. BOSTON - around 43.0" average annual snowfall. Winter 2014/15: potential 50.0"+ for-the-season as-a-whole.

DECEMBER 23, 2013: WHERE IS THE NAO HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO



NAO GEFS Index Forecast - December 23, 2013

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will trend weakly Negative January 1-7. The NAO will then trend neutral to weakly Positive January 8-15.
The NAO Operational GFS Indice Forecast from CPC is also currently weakly Positive. The GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative December 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will trend weakly Negative January 1-7. The NAO will then trend neutral to weakly Positive January 8-15.  
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been modified, due to Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

AO GEFS Index Forecast - December 23, 2013

The Arctic Oscillation (AO)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from CPC is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will trend increasingly Negative January 1-7. The AO will then trend neutral to increasingly Positive January 8-15. 
The AO Operational GFS Indice Forecast from CPC is currently moderately Positive.  The GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative December 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the AO will trend increasingly Negative January 1-7. The AO will then trend neutral to increasingly Positive January 8-15. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been modified, due to Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

PNA GEFS Index Forecast - December 23, 2013

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from CPC is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will trend increasingly Positive January 1-7. The PNA will then trend neutral to weakly Negative January 8-15. 
The PNA Operational GFS Indice Forecast from CPC is currently neutral. The GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be neutral to very weakly Positive December 24-27. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be weakly Positive December 28-31. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will trend increasingly Positive January 1-7. The PNA will then trend neutral to weakly Negative January 8-15. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been modified, due to Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

WPO & EPO GEFS Index Forecast - December 23, 2013

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Negative December 24-26. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be increasingly Negative December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the EPO will trend weakly Negative January 1-6. The EPO will then trend neutral to weakly Positive January 7-13.

The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be moderately Negative December 24-26. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be increasingly Negative December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the WPO will trend weakly Negative January 1-6. The WPO will then trend neutral to weakly Positive January 7-13. 

AAO GEFS Index Forecast - December 23, 2013

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)
GFS MRF Ensemble Indice Forecast from CPC is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral December 24-27. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be neutral to weakly Negative December 28-31. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will trend increasingly Negative January 1-7. The AAO will then trend neutral to increasingly Positive January 8-15.  
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been modified, due to Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range Guidance only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Thoughts to keep-in-mind, the overall December "transition" discussed in the 
2013/14 Winter Outlook... is well-under-way. Established High Latitude Blocking episodes appear eminent as we enter January 2014!

Updated: January 2, 2014

WPO GEFS Index Forecast - January 2, 2014

WHAT CAUSED THE PAST WINTER BLAST!  

As discussed in the 2013/14 Winter Outlook, it was very clear that a resurgence in Solar Activity due to increased sunspots on the magnetically active solar disk in 
mid-to-late October... was responsible for the transition to an overwhelmingly 
Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & 
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the beginning-of-November through most 
all-of-December. However, there was a real Winter blast for much-of-the first half of December that led to a coastal storm on Saturday, December 14, 2013. It is very important to note that while the AO & NAO did not favor such amplification of the 500-millibar Height Pattern, the 
Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) above, and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) where predominantly Negative (circled-in-black above) from mid-to-late November through mid December. This meant that cold air was tapped and drawn southeast from North-central Canada, due to an expanding area of High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. The WPO / EPO are highly influenced by the 
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)... which became slightly Positive during the Fall,  meaning that Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are warmer than normal, encouraging Blocking over the eastern Pacific. 
The -WPO / -EPO pattern collapsed due to lack-of-Teleconnection support in association to changes with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)... as the enhanced area of tropical convection over the equatorial Pacific entered Phase 5-6, collapsing the ridge of High pressure over the eastern Pacific, which strongly encouraged the true effects of an overwhelmingly 
+AO / +NAO signature as New England experienced a classic blow-torch from December 20-23, 2013. Of interest, while the WPO & EPO where initially Positive from late October into the beginning of November... which was the peak-of-sunspot resurgence, the AO & NAO remained Positive beyond, due to extreme sensitivity to solar activity. The more active the sun, the more of a driver it is... influencing the Earth's stratosphere (poleward), where pronounced cooling occurs. Therefore, the orientation of the jet-stream keeps the heart of the Polar Vortex (PV) at the
North Pole...
encouraging an overall progressive pattern (with short-lived shots of cold air) in middle latitudes with a highly Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and 
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

PUNCH 1! BEGINNING OF CHANGE...

GFS 1000-500 hPa Thickness - January 2, 2014

Current 1000-500 hPa Thickness show a positively-tilt trough over the 
Mid-Atlantic, with a defined Polar Vortex (PV) (circled-in-white) over Quebec... marking the transition to a Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). However, much of the southeastern United States... especially Florida, is experiencing above normal temperatures due to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) only falling to around neutral. The neutral NAO allows for the southeast ridge to maintain it's identity, and in-return promotes a significant moderation for New England in-advance of Arctic fronts... due to a strong south-southwest flow in-advance of the frontal passage. This, for example, will occur on Monday, January, 6th. Aside from this, the period of January 3-10 will feature below to well below normal temperatures overall... with moderate-to-high potential of Miller Type B coastal storm development. This period will mark the true beginning of the Winter change, especially with the 
Arctic Oscillation (AO).

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS:

THE SUN & SOLAR CYCLE 24...

NASA Solar Activity as of January 2, 2014

While Solar Activity, in-terms of active sunspots, has lessened since November 2013... the extreme western quadrant of the sun remains active. Most of the solar disk, however, is becoming quiet or falling-to-sleep... which is important for sustained High Latitude Blocking episodes, and will be a significant factor in-the-years-to-come. It is very important to remember, on January 4, 2008 we entered Solar Cycle 24. While Solar Cycle 23 was highly active 
in-terms of sunspot activity, Solar Cycle 24 is trending much-less-active (as seen above)... especially since the actual observed Solar Maximum in 2011/12. Had this sunspot activity took place a decade ago, the out-come on the overall 500-millibar Height Pattern in the Northern Hemisphere... would have had a far greater impact. 
*A note to viewers, the Fall 2013 resurgence in sunspot activity should NOT be confused with the 
2011/12 Solar Maximum... as there is no comparison in the amount of UV Rays that hit the Earth now, in-contrast to then. Which is (in-part) why we will be experiencing the 
PUNCH-of-Winter!

MJO & BRIEF THAW... PATTERN RELOAD

MJO GEFS Forecast - January 2, 2014

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will emerge in Phase 6, from neutral over the western Pacific during the next 7-10 Days. This will play a role in temporarily shifting the ridge/trough axis over the eastern Pacific, encouraging a +WPO / +EPO  / -PNA influence, promoting the return to a +AO / +NAO Teleconnection January 11-18. During this period there will be a "January Thaw", temperatures will rise to above-to-much-above normal levels briefly along with increased risk of rainfall. This will be due to the shifting ridge/trough axis encouraging a southerly flow at all levels of the atmosphere in 
New England, as the AO & NAO return Positive.


PUNCH 2! COMPLETE TRANSITION...

NAO GFS Index Forecast - January 2, 2014

  The combined influence of significantly reduced sunspot activity... encouraging pronounced High Latitude Blocking as downward propagation of Poleward 
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) reacts, along with the continued forward propagating Phase 6-7 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influence over the western Pacific, will reload the 500-millibar Height Pattern. This, however, will be a complete pattern transition... where a highly amplified -WPO / -EPO / +PNA Teleconnection, will drive a classic 
-AO / -NAO couplet over eastern North America as the Polar Vortex (PV) returns to east-central Canada around January 20-22. 


Prepared by: Daniel Viens

  New England NAO APP. - application available as a convenience to
Android Smartphone users on the Google Play Market.

What is the North Atlantic Oscillation?

THOUGHTS ON THE 2013/14 WINTER SEASON!

NASA Solar Activity as of November 19, 2013

 Solar Activity, while mentioned by few professionals concerning Winter Outlooks... is one-of-the most important factors shaping this upcoming Winter season, it is what I call the foundation. The above image of the solar disk from NASA on November 19, 2013, shows 4-active sunspot regions in-general (circled-in-black) on the sun. The sunspot region toward the center of the solar disk, is most active... however all circled sunspot regions have-to-be-watched. Of note, during a Solar Minimum, the solar disk would be virtually free of sunspot activity... as we head toward 2016, the above image will be less-of-a-factor. Sunspots have a direct relation to High Latitude Blocking episodes, due to the entrapment of heat through UV Rays... promoting increased ozone formation. The more active the sun, the more of a driver it is... influencing the Earth's stratosphere (poleward), where pronounced cooling occurs. Therefore, the orientation of the jet-stream keeps the heart of the Polar Vortex (PV) at the North Pole...
encouraging an overall progressive pattern (with short-lived shots of cold air) in middle latitudes with a highly Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and 
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a result, the weather pattern experienced in middle latitudes, is an overall milder, dryer pattern... which is a signature of increased solar activity, especially during a Solar Maximum.

AO GEFS Index Forecast  -  November 19, 2013

Looking at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) forecast, shows true signs of solar influence. Within the area circled-in-red, the AO Index has been averaging around  +3.0 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean... from extreme late October to mid-November. During this time period there was also a  pronounced resurgence in sunspot activity, which is clearly observed with this classic +AO signature.

SWPC Solar Cycle Progression as of November 4, 2013

Viewers of this site understood that a Solar Maximum was experienced during 2011/12 & 2001/02... following the 9-11 year Schwabe Cycle, which averages to be exactly every 10.66 years that a solar maximum is observed. However, following this cycle also hints at a resurgence of solar activity about 2 years after the actual observed maximum... this occurred in 2003/04 (which highly influenced that Winter season) now were 2 years after the maximum again, with another resurgence in sunspot activity. In posts I published during the 2012/13 Winter Season, I wrote about a return to the classic old-fashioned New England Winter's (as experienced throughout most of the 1960's & 70's) from 2016 through 2020. I stated this with a strong understanding that this period will be the start of a Solar Minimum (which will strongly encourage High Latitude Blocking episodes due to a non-active solar influence), following the Schwabe Cycle. But, there is also another important factor to strongly consider...
on January 4, 2008 we entered Solar Cycle 24. While Solar Cycle 23 was highly active in-terms of sunspot activity, especially before the observed minimum in 2006 (as seen on the SWPC image above), Solar Cycle 24 has paled in-comparison. This is a highly important factor, that will also have a significant influence over the next decade+... considering that the actual solar cycle is about 22 years long.

My thoughts for the 2013/14 Winter Season: Due to a resurgence in solar activity, it's critical in how active the sun remains. However, I will clearly state that seeing the actual Solar Maximum was observed in 2011/12... I certainly believe that it won't be as mild as that Winter. In fact, if you follow the Schwabe Cycle closely... this resurgence in active sunspots should be short-lived. Taking this strongly into consideration, I feel the potential is strong for established High Latitude Blocking episodes from January through March. December is critical, but will more than likely be a period of transition... as the current solar activity will be less of a factor on the overall 500-millibar Height Pattern.

Now that I presented the foundation, I am going to link to NY NJ PA Weather for the finer details on the Winter Forecast for 2013/2014... which is the best seasonal outlook I have ever read.

New England NAO will continue to-be-updated through the Winter season.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY NEW ENGLAND NAO!

 On this one-year-anniversary of New England NAO... 
I thought I would reflect back a-year-ago, to-the-beginning. This site in many ways was something that I had always wanted to see to some level, I can remember Googling phrases related to New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)... but very few sites directly connected the overall NAO influence to New England. The sites that were of interest to me, were quite informative, but what I was really looking for was the interpretation of Indice Forecasts... & their overall effect on the
New England Region. I decided to take that idea into consideration... while posting as a member of Todd Gross' NE-Weather Spotter Network in 2002. I really enjoyed posting on Todd Gross' weather spotter site, and intend to continue to be a member of his established weather enthusiast community. However, it didn't seem proper to post about Indice Forecasts in times of tranquil conditions, especially during the warm season... so I would mainly post in-advance of significant pattern changes during the Winter season. For this reason, I came to realize that I needed a place of my own to truly express my thoughts... which is why I established
New England NAO. Presently, since the establishment of the site, I have only been updating continuously during the Winter... but I may update year-round as the site continues to grow. 

  Even though I am not a professional meteorologist, I have learned a lot about meteorology in general from my close friends who work professionally as meteorologists (John Hockridge, meteorologist & owner of 
New England Weather Associates
& George Trottier, senior forecaster formerly of WNAW 1230 A.M. N. Adams, MA.)... and through my own self-taught research. Because of the increasing popularity of the site... I started a general form of consulting, explaining to the public, the upcoming effects the Indice Forecasts would have on the New England Region. This was aired as a radio-spot known as
New England NAO (November 2011 to July 2012) on WBRK (Inc.) 
1340 A.M. Pittsfield, MA.

(For more information on  

New England NAO official products... please see
NE-NAO - Legend) 



Or click the LEGEND... Above 

  Since the Beginning, New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), now commonly known as simply

New England NAO... has continued to grow through reflection of it's purpose. The site has generated a theme through the help of Dreamstime.com & LogoSnap.com, plus a large part of artistic talent from myself, as author of New England NAO. 

NEW! Logopony (a new Al-powered logo maker website).    

    The Theme of New England NAO:

  1. Page Design

        

A. The title background theme was an exclusive image from Dreamstime.com, it is a view of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole... the image is representative of an area where the heart of high latitude blocking originates in respect to the Negative Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). *(The newly designed Main_Title logo now replaces this background theme... which strongly promotes the site.)     

  

B. The general page background theme was an exclusive template by Airyelf through blogger.com. This general page background theme was changed on November 14, 2012, to the exclusive New_England_NAO_Red_White_&_Blue_Sky template... which strongly blends all the elements on the site.

   2. Page Logos (all custom logos are designed by the author of New England NAO through LogoSnap.com) There are two standard logos and one variation... as well as other featured logos designed by the author. 

    A. This original standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is deep red & the falling arrow is deep blue.      

    B. This second standard logo features a true standard blue & red title, the rising arrow is also standard red & the falling arrow is standard blue.

   

    C. This third variant logo features a true standard blue title only, both the rising & falling arrows are also standard blue.



3. Featured Images



A. This exclusive photo from Dreamstime.com is representative of New England's Four Seasons, expressing each seasons touch as experienced in New England.



INC. OCTOBER 15, 1778

TOWN LINE www.newengland-nao.com  Image courtesy of WhiteSummerCreations.com ADAMS, MASSACHUSETTS

  Home of Mt. Greylock Summit   
& Susan B. Anthony  

B. Photo taken by the author of New England NAO
on December 12, 2012, is of the 
Massachusetts Veterans War Memorial Tower 
(Mt. Greylock Summit 3,491 FT.) Adams, MA., which crowns the Commonwealth's Highest Peak. Please visit the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation,
for more information on 
Mt. Greylock State Reservation.

  

INC. APRIL 16, 1878

CITY LINE www.newengland-nao.com  Image courtesy of WhiteSummerCreations.com NORTH ADAMS, MASSACHUSETTS
We Hold The Western Gateway

C. Photo taken by the author of 
New England NAO 
on March 18, 2009, is of 
the
HOOSAC TUNNEL 
(West Portal)
North Adams, MA. 
(pronounced Hoosic), 
where I live very close to.
My 4-year-old nephew (at-the-time of picture) Dominick, of Savoy, MA. is standing at the entrance to the portal. 
 The photo is representative of what could be known unofficially as western Massachusetts' Big Dig... of it's time, due to cost and length of time in-construction--from 1850 - 1874. Also, the lives of 195 miners were lost during the time of construction... making this railroad landmark historically significant to the Commonwealth & New England. From the West Portal in
N. Adams, MA. through to the East Portal in Florida, MA. (at the Deerfield River), is a total length of 4.74 miles. For complete information on the HOOSAC TUNNEL, please visit HoosacTunnel.net. For more information on the New England region (& government entities) please visit
New England Town... defined by Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia.    


  4. The Beginning

On Thursday, January 27, 2011 
New England NAO appeared on a simple blogger.com Awesome Inc. Template under the title:
New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The purpose of New England NAO (NE-NAO)... established January 27, 2011 
is to educate and inform the public of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); by examining current trends and indice forecasts that will impact the New England region.

Christmas Day, December 25, 2011, in loving memory of my cousin... Peter Christopher Rowley (1961 - 2011) formerly of Pittsfield, MA., who recognized my true purpose in-life and was taken from us so soon. George Joseph Trottier (1939 - 2023); my best friend and incentive to the establishment of this New England themed weather website.

Prepared by : Daniel Viens

Long Range Weather Forecast for the US

By Ivor Goligher

In other countries, weather conditions can easily be determined. However, in the US, it may be a difficult task. The reason for this is mainly the US is a big country, and it is divided into a lot of different regions. There may be some things that are similar with different areas. For example, areas in the upper part of the country is likely to have a cold and wet climate, while the lower part cooler but still comfortable. Generally, this can be said however, due to the different phenomena happening in our world, it is difficult to determine what the weather is going to be like.

There are already a lot of natural disasters that may affect the long term weather forecast in the US. One would be the recent volcano activity around the world. The very strong and destructive earthquake that hit Japan this year also affects the global weather. Also, the earthquake in Indonesia a few years ago has changed the rotation of the earth slightly. These tragedies may be small but it can bring large amounts of impact to the world and may be factors to change in weather on the long run.

Consider when a volcano eruption occurs. During an eruption, a volcano releases a huge amount of hot, molten lava and spurts ashes into the air. Those ashes are not gone in just one day. While they exist, they can affect clouds and cloud formation, possibly increasing or decreasing the amount of precipitation that the cloud can give off. Even disasters that are not natural may still have an effect on the environment. Nuclear power plants that may have been leaking or blown up may cause disastrous changes to the environment.

The next step is to make sure that your property is in general good condition. If your building is in a bad way any problems could become dangerous during extreme weather. After you've sorted out your quotes for property insurance you should thoroughly check your building for things like:

* Loose tiles * Weak mortar on the property's roof * Broken brickwork on the chimney * Dodgy roof stacks * Corroded nails * Unstable brickwork * Overgrown trees near the building * Weak fences * Rickey satellite dishes and aerials

Ash and dust introduced into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions can lower the earths surface temperatures by reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth. There are many other variables in producing the weather you experience.

While you cannot control the weather you can be prepared for it. Listen to your local forecast when threatening weather is possible especially if you are planning on travelling. Have a emergency kit in your car at all times and use common sense before heading out into inclement weather.

About the Author:

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