|NASA Solar Activity as of November 19, 2013|
encouraging an overall progressive pattern (with short-lived shots of cold air) in middle latitudes with a highly Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a result, the weather pattern experienced in middle latitudes, is an overall milder, dryer pattern... which is a signature of increased solar activity, especially during a Solar Maximum.
|AO GEFS Index Forecast - November 19, 2013|
|SWPC Solar Cycle Progression as of November 4, 2013|
on January 4, 2008 we entered Solar Cycle 24. While Solar Cycle 23 was highly active in-terms of sunspot activity, especially before the observed minimum in 2006 (as seen on the SWPC image above), Solar Cycle 24 has paled in-comparison. This is a highly important factor, that will also have a significant influence over the next decade+... considering that the actual solar cycle is about 22 years long.
My thoughts for the 2013/14 Winter Season: Due to a resurgence in solar activity, it's critical in how active the sun remains. However, I will clearly state that seeing the actual Solar Maximum was observed in 2011/12... I certainly believe that it won't be as mild as that Winter. In fact, if you follow the Schwabe Cycle closely... this resurgence in active sunspots should be short-lived. Taking this strongly into consideration, I feel the potential is strong for established High Latitude Blocking episodes from January through March. December is critical, but will more than likely be a period of transition... as the current solar activity will be less of a factor on the overall 500-millibar Height Pattern.
Now that I presented the foundation, I am going to link to NY NJ PA Weather for the finer details on the Winter Forecast for 2013/2014... which is the best seasonal outlook I have ever read.
New England NAO will continue to-be-updated through the Winter season.