Friday, March 16, 2012

MARCH 11-18, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

official product of... New England NAO
  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30.
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.   


Ensemble Mean AO Outlook
  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook
  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.  
  The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Negative.  The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

  
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from
NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently strongly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately Positive.. trending weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The EPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30.
  The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently weakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The WPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30.

Ensemble Mean AAO Outlook
  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 18-21. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. 
NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. 

 Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.   


EXTENDED OUTLOOK: As the tropical intraseasonal oscillation,
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave progresses through phase 5... a strong Pacific & subtropical jet-stream - in association with a strong +EPO pattern - will be the dominant feature. In-reaction, an intense subtropical ridge in association with an
unseasonably strong warm front will push northeast over eastern North America... as the
+AO & +NAO influence peak. This pattern will encourage a classic Bermuda High (blow-torch) to become established off the Eastern Seaboard... as a strong south to southwest flow - at all levels of the atmosphere - fosters well Above normal temperatures in New England March 18-21. Keep in-mind that the average high temperatures throughout New England for March 18-21 would be around
40°F - 49°F... meaning this period will potentially average around
+30°F Above normal!

LONG RANGE THOUGHTSThe current MJO wave will continue to progress through phase 6... and enter phase 7, March 22-24. This will promote a brief re-establishment of the Negative EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... which will encourage the
AO & NAO to briefly fall Negative around March 25-30. There is a heightened potential of  below normal temperatures in association with Miller Type B coastal
redevelopment during this period... dependent on the timing & interaction of elements, before a gradual moderation March 31 to April 2.
  Of note, research has shown that the initial effects of a solar maximum are first observed at the equator... then expand north & south in-latitude. This is important to consider due to a highly active MJO influence (over the equatorial Pacific) for much of the Northern Hemisphere's cold season, which could be connected to the current observed solar maximum... in association to the
9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. The overall state of the
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also effected by this factor, as Pacific sea surface temperatures rise... with the establishment of weak El Nino conditions (as we enter the Northern Hemisphere's warm season).


Prepared by: Daniel Viens, of... 

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