Thursday, March 8, 2012

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

  Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights... are for the indice at +1.5 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean, to be weakening slightly in the short-term. A cold front over the Ohio River Valley will push east allowing for falling Heights, as temperatures fall to slightly below seasonal levels March 10-11. The overall progressive pattern will allow for quick moderation as the trough lifts-out of New England... with temperatures returning to above normal levels March 12-13. Due to a highly active Phase 4 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over the Pacific Maritime Continent... the dominant feature will be an intense jet-stream of Pacific origin, allowing for a continuation of above to well above normal temperatures in New England March 14-20. The chart above from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts this intense tropical wave to propagate from Phase 4-5 around the middle of the month... & enter Phase 6-7 around March 22-24. This may encourage a brief significant pattern change (adjusting my initial timing from March 14-16) as high pressure builds in the east-central Pacific... in association with a return of the Negative Phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Ridge that may encourage a brief +PNA, -AO & -NAO influence as the existing Polar Vortex shifts east-southeast March 25-31. 

Prepared by: Daniel Viens     

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