Thursday, February 16, 2012

CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS

  Current North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Highlights, are for the indice at +0.1 Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean... to become weakly Positive in the short-term. The above chart is from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, CO., depicting Solar Cycle Progression. One can clearly see how intense the 10.7cm Radio Flux (sfu) was during the absent New England Winter of 2001/02... before significantly falling to an observed solar minimum during 2006 - 2010, but look how the values significantly rose during 2011/12 (season) as we entered a solar maximum! The predicted values do not show a solar minimum becoming re-established until around 2018, but does this mean high latitude blocking events (in association with a sustained
-AO / -NAO) could be effected by high solar activity until 2018? I would answer NO, because even if high solar activity is a factor in the 2012/13 Winter season... it would not be as intense as this season (due to the decrease in 10.7cm Radio Flux values as suggested by the chart).
  As for the short-term, due to the overall progressive nature of this pattern... I do not see anything truly resembling Winter in New England. However, I am cautiously optomistic that there will be another cold shot around February 22-27... potentially being more than just a cold blast as the NAO falls very weakly Negative before significantly moderating! (To expand on thoughts generated from the previous weeks
NE-NAO - WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW, I am planning on
re-introducing
CURRENT NAO - HIGHLIGHTS every other week.)


 Prepared by: Daniel Viens   

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