Monday, March 7, 2011

MARCH 6, 2011 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?


"NEW ENGLAND & THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION" WEEKLY INDICE REVIEW

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook
  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will become neutral to weakly Positive March 8-13.  The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast later weakens the NAO to very weakly Positive then neutral around March 13-18.
  The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast also indicates that the NAO will become very weakly Positive around March 8-13. This indice forecast then indicates that the NAO will be weakly Positive, then weaken to neutral around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.  

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook
  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) like the NAO, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will become weakly to moderately Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast significantly weakens the AO to neutral, then trends increasingly Negative around March 13-18.
  The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will also become weakly to Moderately Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast weakens the AO from weakly Positive to neutral, then trends increasingly Negative around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern. 

 Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook
  The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently very weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will become weakly Positive March 8-13. This indice forecast then appears to bring the PNA increasingly Positive around March 13-18.
   The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently very weakly Positive. The Operational GFS indicates that the PNA will become neutral to very weakly Negative during March 8-13. This indice forecast then weakens the PNA in a Negative state, trending neutral to increasingly Positive around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.  
   
  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently neutral. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will become weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast indicates that the EPO will be increasingly Positive, then weaken toward neutral around March 13-18.
   The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL (PSD) and NCEP, is currently very weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will become neutral to weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast later indicates that the WPO will be increasingly Positive, then weaken toward neutral and become very weakly Negative around March 13-18.

Ensemble Mean AAO Outlook
  The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Positive during March 8-13. This indice forecast then appears to bring the AAO weakly to moderately Positive around March 13-18.
DISCLAIMER: Adjustment was made to the "Current" Indice observation, due to upcoming changes and Forecaster's understanding of the current Longwave pattern.  



EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  I am focusing on the AO & NAO for the Extended Outlook, due to noteworthy changes with these indices. We did experience sharp amplification with Coastal redevelopment on Sunday, which in-return allowed for rising heights to the West. I did state on last week's Weekly Indice Review that we would have "temperatures seasonal then above normal during March 8-13." Even though I am still trending this way, emphasis should be put on "seasonal" due to weak Blocking remaining over northeastern Canada. However, it' still clear that an intense Pacific jet-stream associated with strong Westerlies will drive across the northern United States, as the pattern de-amplifies and becomes zonal around March 13-18. As a result temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, with a brief period of much Above normal temperatures in New England March 15-18 associated with an increasingly Positive AO & NAO.

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: Even though La Nina continues to weaken and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is not a present influence, the overall Longwave pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will de-amplify and become Zonal. Now, I strongly feel that with the passing Cold Blast last week... Winter's true punch is over. However, Wintery elements will still be a threat as we head further into March. A strong push of very mild air of Pacific-origin March 15-18, will be in-advance of a Major Longwave pattern-change across the Northern Hemisphere. This change may bring New England back to a Classic Negative AO & NAO pattern beyond March 18...

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